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What's the deal with the terrible randomization of the cards?

 

Since the game's release on XBoxOne, I have seen quads hit more time than in the last four years of playing online poker. And don't get me started on the number of times I've been burned  by donkeys following my all in with something stupid like 6-4 while I'm sitting on top two pair or trips, only to see them hit runners for the straight.

 

i cannot be the only one who had noticed this. 

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I think for the most part the game has a fair card generator.  I think what leads to the variance  you describe is the fact that there is a lot of beginning players  at the lowest stakes.

For example, say the flop is A,3,9  and you have the button, and everybody checks to you and pot is 180, you bet 100, and everybody who just checked calls, every time. Not everybody here has monster hands like two pairs or sets as they'd raise with this many people.  The most legit hands here would be weak Aces or hands like 910, J9, Q9, 89 suited hands.  But really I find most people want to see if they get a backdoor draw on the turn. (backdoor means you don't have a draw on the flop, but getting a card on the turn that gives you a draw.)

Anyhow all the calling stations create tons of dead money going into the turn, and now there is like 780 and one only has like 870 left on the turn.  The pot to stack ratio tends to be 1:1 going into the turn with all these stations.  If one person goes all in I find that you have the person with the best hand involved, a guy overvaluing a pair, one chasing a gutshot, and one who got a legit backdoor draw on the turn.  This gives draws tremendous odds to call on turn as pot is like 3-4k and only 800 to call or even money (flush draws are about 18% to hit on river, and open end straight and flush draws are 30% on river, with only 800 to call 4k pot.)

My whole point is that beginning players and the math involved with pot to stack ratios going into flop and turn creates this wild variance.  I think to take advantage one should preflop raise wider and often.  Raise the small pairs, and raise the drawing hands like 64 suited, 54 suited, or even suited junk like K4 or K5 suited.  But open from 2-4x, or 20-40 on 5/10.  Make the preflop raises small, and if you hit a draw on the flop bet it, get the draw on turn and jam and stack.  Small pairs are the scratch offs of holdem, hit a set and stack some donks, if not just fold on the flop, easy to play.

I really do hope they add a deep stack option in the game, as the whole nature of the game would change by people having 200-300 big blinds behind, instead of 70 or 80 in their stack going into the turn.   But the game is fun and one just needs to adjust a bit to exploit the stations, fun to win 2 or 3 stacks in one hand, it makes up for the bad beats.

Edited by Squid
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You can talk about variance and betting strategy all you want. I still see donkeys get rewarded for bad play and races that are heavily favored for the player that's way ahead go the other way due to unlikely runners. 

Just this morning I'm playing and have pocket 9's. The dummy I'm playing against has been pushing preflop for three hands in a row. Sure enough he pushes again so I follow and he has 6-4. I'm way ahead, so I win right?  No - the clod hits his straight on the River. Now if he'd had an over card and hits, fine. But the straight?  On a full table?

 

Later, different game, same scenario except I have JJ and he has 9-4. He hits his 9 on the flop and another 9 on the River. 

I have simply seen this happen too many times, both to me and other players for it to make any sense. Plus I saw my seventh set of quads this afternoon. That alone seems too good to be true considering that I've played tons of other poker games and haven't seems as many quads in all of them put together as I have in this game in less than two weeks. 

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I want to say it has something to do with the challenges they put into place. The weekly is "end with 25 full houses" and I've seen so many get it just from the flop. And to the guy who said you need to raise pre-flop more often: yeah that's what an experienced poker player would do, but a lot of the idiots will just think, "Oh, I guess it's time for me to go all in now" (it literally doesn't matter what they have), and win it with complete crap, more often then not on the river. I've lost count of how many times someone I've dominated all the way through the hand has called me with bottom pair only to get a flush with the help of four other cards on the table or a three of a kind on the river. And like I said, that may be because it's another challenge to win the hand there and there's also an achievement for it I believe. It's hella frustrating for sure. 

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The lower the stakes table, the more variance. 

 

Once you hit the big stack tables these problems fade away

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I think most people are used to the fundamentals of raise preflop, have 2-3 to the flop, c-bet, take the pot down or if someone calls have it heads up going into turn and evaluate options.  This is the foundation of good poker, that and position and it helps at any level, even play money, and especially as one rises up the stakes and the play improves.

I've found at the lower levels you preflop raise and its 5-6 people to the flop and there is a lot of check calls.  In this situation it plays more like limit poker, as the dead money creates incentives to hit your draw and win stacks.  So use the position, especially button and raise the suited hands and small pairs, the connected cards.  Like say I have A,10 of hearts, and the flop comes down Q,J,3 with two hearts, if someone leads out like they tend to do I can raise back or jam it in if pot is already large enough.  Or if its checked to you,  you can c-bet with real equity and have two ways to win (they all fold).

If the flop is say 3,3,7 (no hearts) and there is a lead out and a call, well I just fold it, no need for me to try and outplay the whole field with air.   I just keep it simple with stations, hit the flop with big draws, or the big hands like two pair or sets, or some pairs with pot control.  If you have to fold well its just 3 big blinds (reason to keep the preflop raises small).  Yes there are bad beats, but also one hand can lead to 2-4 stacks being won in one hand, so there is positive variance there too. 

So preflop raise more and wider since  you rarely get 3 bet preflop on this game, and even then the stations cold call enough to give you odds to flat the 3 better.  Eventually you wear the field down.  You will get bad beats, just part of the game.  Over the long haul (100,000 hands plus) good play will make you a winning player.  Its like a line chart, you'll get some dips, but play well and the line should stay high.

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I'm personally just tired of being dealt the same 5-6 hands with slight variance on suit. 7-3, J-5, Q-6, etc.  Meanwhile I get to see all kinds of pocket pairs being drawn and chasers hitting everything.

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I have seen this discussion on previous forum of WSOP full house pro. It never ends. 

The cut through the mustard as they say, both side are right and both side are wrong. 

Side 1, Advanced poker players: 

RIGHT: Talk about variance of hands base on calls that should not be made even on even on a pre-flop lead out. Calls over 40% of port that should not be made when the ameatur is holding a lower pair or even one high card. These absolutely this contributes to having more hands that should be matching the board. Agree also that because of these calls that should not be made as it is gambling over the low chances its has, it also effect the players that end ups making the river and going to showdown. 

WRONG: While the variants increase, the factor here is 5-6 hands against the boards vs. 2-3 players. Potentiality an additional 6 cards and 3 combinations. However, players are seeing even when it comes to show down of 2 people, even perhaps it is the wrong type of people (taking higher gamble with less percentage make something against the boards) the board still deal s out A in the river, time and time again, runner, runner flushes, flop straights. The board itself base on observation and consistency of low percentage combinations of cards being repeated in similar patterns base on observations means the consistency of randomness can be questionable from the pseudo random generator. Some poker sites (game) may not provide such strong patterns because their algorithm are perhaps more controlled with % payouts, in this game, the patterns are limited to the algorithm, which has a limited period in a loop. By loop in a pseudo random generator (PRG), the starting number (lets say 7S), known as the seed in the PRG is fed into the fisher inside-out algorithm and it will keep generate numbers (cards) until the "loop" ends, going right back to 7S. The trick to a good PRG is to issue randoms cards in which the patterns is not easily spotted. If I see regularly A on river, in combination with players calling a single A to the river, it should be a high number of change they will hit a pair. Whether they win is another matter. 

 

Side 2, Players spotting the regular pattern: 

RIGHT: Simply put, the job of the good pseudo random number/card generator (PRG), repeated patterns over prolong period of games on various tables should not be easy to spotted. PRG means it is "pseudo" by nature and not purely random and their should be and will be repeated patterns of same type of cards being issued. 

If the same PRG is used over 100 hands twice with the same starting number (which must be selected to start the generation) {it connect generate from nothing!}, the same numbers/cards in sequence will be generated/dealt in the exact order. That is what the "loop" is. 

WRONG: Exaggeration exist for "gambler's Fallacy", but i would go as far to say, "losers fallacy". I have experience this myself as poker player. Experienced poker plays controlled their emotions on strings of bad beats. When one loses the control, they start to play and call more hands they should not be doing and experienced more bad beats when they should. Weather one plays the hand or not, if the same player with that same starting hand play the particular board, they will hit the same flop, turn, river. If you are not in the hand, it is not a bad beat.                                                      
 

While certain complaints are made on low percentage combinations of flops, turns and straight, notice how many times at a starting hands (I see that on every table from 100, 1K, 10K, 50K, 100K and 200K) everyone checks. 8 times out of 10, no-one pre-lfop raises and even if there is a pre-flop raises, there are sometimes folds. Yes, the higher the buy-in tables, possibility less. This means more players are going to hit the boards with a combinations that would look to be suspect in its combination. However, one must realize, the board itself without the hole cards have equal probably with every single card, so it does depend on the players with the connecting hole cards to hit. Thus, having almost 5-6 players instead of 2 players in the river makes a significant difference. 

 

Conclusion

Both side has various points to support the discussion, but we must be clear at the start what we are discussing about. In respect to comment from the OP on this post, the topic is "CARD RANDOMIZATION". This implies to me the question is:

 

a. Is the cards dealt from the deck randomize. 

Short answer. NO. It is a "pseudo" random generator and it does not sustain the randomness since it has a set loop that will repeat. It is never going to be pure randomness. It is designed to mimic randomness. 

b. Further note to the OP, OP mentioned about hitting QUADS many times. This implies a pattern spotted of cards being dealt over several hands in the players' tournament plays over a period of games. This includes several factors that supports
SIDE 1 with variants and number of players involved in hitting the hand. This is not the question of randomness alone, but the combinations of whole hands, matching the combination of the board. This also indicated repeated patterns are spotted (a good PRG does not allows patterns to be spotted easily). Having said that, I would also insert the illusions of many bad beats equating to exaggeration of the pattern spotted, so the result of hitting the QUADS base on how good the PRG randoms the cards is debatable. 

I would go as far as what the single player see or the no. similar players sees is still a small portion of the total no. of hands being dealt in the entries game and having QUADS hit is actually a small percentage vs. a high card being hit. 

Overall, I would recommend playing less hands, calling lead out less if one holds AK and nothing on the board. Beting more post flop with slightly exaggerated bets (its a free poker game with no real money, people will gamble with nothing for fun...screw serious poker players';s view and percentages!!!), and fold more garbage hands (Tier 5, 6, 7), especially out of position! You may see less 1 and 2 outters! If one really wants to prove a point, play one tournament and take down the hands for data and see the percentage of QUADS vs a Pair of Ks. You might find that it is not that regular!

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I played around 20 hands without looking at my cards. The game seems rigged to favor certain players. If you don't hit your first hand on the table, find a new table. I watch ppl come to my table when I have the favor and lose everything. The first table I sat at when I started granted me 100k. Going to a big table: Big seat wins on the river with bad cards when I all in preflop a KQ. I got trips and they straight. I joined a table and 2 players side by side AA | AA.. I left.

Edited by Derrttuu
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I really don't understand the point you are making by not looking at your cards.  It's actually a great exercise that helps emphasize that you are not playing your hand, but your opponents.  Daniel Negreanu does this in live play sometimes to folks on edge.   

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I read that Annette Oberstad once played an entire tournament using only position.  She never looked at her hole cards.  I think maybe this could work within a certain environment, but I'm not sure what point you're trying to make by doing it on this venue.

Edited by BedsideFungus89
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I don't have the time to do as you suggest, but I hear you. I've seen quads three more times since I last posted to this thread, and if you've been following the thread, you'll see that It adds up to a huge number. Frankly, given the past pattern, I'm surprised it's only three in the last while. 

To me, just the prevelance of quads indicates something is suspects, but I've noticed the other patterns too. 

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Am interesting topic. One that always comes up when the randomness of live play is compared to a computer generated attempt to approximate. reality.

I enjoy playing this poker site.  It's free!  It's well written and it's fun. 

I suggest that we  remember that we all play from the same deck of cards.  Just because I failed to win this time is no indication that I will lose next time.  Enjoy the game for what it is:  a well written free poker game, nothing more and nothing less.

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On 9/3/2016 at 5:24 PM, RllDDllCK said:

I have seen 3-4players get pocket pairs in the same hand. Far too many times. Please adjust the PRG.  The probability of three players getting a pocket pair is low. The chances of 4 plus one in the flop is even far lower. Yet I have seen 3 get it 7 times now, as well a four get it 3 times. I am now making a room full of friends. While running every card n the table played for 300 hands. Through a friends program, to test how good this PRG is. Aside from that, I love the game. Also please fix straights. I made a post explaining the two ways they are coded wrong.

 

Actually, 3 players getting pockets are quite common even in life. Over 100's of hands dealt in the same tournament, if pockets are preferred by the majorities of players on PP and they are not likely to fold, then the chances of 3 players with pockets as their starting hands calling each other's bet until showdown will be on average higher than let say keeping a K or Q as their starting hands if they don't hit by the river.

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I find 95% of the time when i have the best hand and go all in, they call me needing one card and 95% of the time they hit that card, i lost 670k chips in 1 day even though i had the best hand and they suck out, it couldn't possibly be random there's just no way. i honestly feel the hands are set up to be honest it's so often i sit and say anything but a Q or anything but a 4, and they never ever ever fail to hit the card it's so so annoying 15 minutes ago i flopped a nut straight, 78910J i go all in the guy called me with ace K, and he gets runner runner for the higher straight its just so sickeningly often it happens

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Very interesting thread!  I'm extremely hooked on the idea of understanding what I'm seeing in these games.  As a live poker dealer, I recognized the stark difference right away, but it wouldn't be the first online poker game that I've seen it in.

Anyway, I don't have anything to add at this time.  We're using PP as a case study in my UMKC statistics class, though.  It will be a month or so before we have enough data, but I'm excited to see if we can use the data to improve our play!

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If this was 2006 or 2007 maybe one would have an argument.   The algorithms for online play have come a long way since then. 

Look Holdem is one of the few games where a weaker player can beat a stronger play over a short frame of hands.  I can go try and play against a professional basketball player one and one and lose every time, same with Tennis player, or the world chess champion.

Yet in Holdem I can run good and win some money off Phil Ivey over a short run.  Play it over the long run and he has a huge edge on me.

There is a poker saying "without the river, there would be no fish."  One is going to lose some hands on the river,  its just a part of the game.  The river gives and it takes away.  The fact that weaker players can win is what keeps them coming back.  Long term they are losing players, but if they win some of the time they come back.

Holdem is a good reminder that life is not fair.  The saying "bad things happen to good people", well in Holdem "bad things happen to good hands."  Its just part of the game, that's why managing bankroll is key.  This is one of the few games where you can do everything right and still lose at times.  If one doesn't have the emotional fortitude to handle that, then they shouldn't play this game, go play UNO.

If one is playing tournaments, realize that tournaments are higher variance games than ring games.   The reason is that you lose the ability to check/raise/ or fold once it gets towards the end of the tournament and blinds are high.  People have to at some point gamble when their stack size is very short in relation to the blinds.  At that point if they call preflop, they are pretty much pot committed postflop.  The money goes in on the flop and all you do is watch the cards come out.  A lot of hands between pairs and big flush and straight draws are coin flips.  Even plain flush draws or straight draws have a 1/3 chance of winning by the river. 

If its a ring game, manage the pot better.  There is a reason small ball poker became the foundation for poker theory since Doyle Brunson. 

There is no entitlement in holdem, just  because one learned to the play tight hand ranking chart of AQ-AK and 10,10-AA  doesn't mean they are entitled to every pot.   The arguments of rigged poker have been going on since Party Poker, Poker Stars and Full Tilt.  

I suggest just leaving the algorithm as is, tweaking just because of complaints could lead to more issues.   The key to this game is adapting to your opponents and accepting that bad things happen to good hands. Hold em is a long term math game mixed with psychology.  One just has to ride the ups and downs.  If not get off the ride.

Edited by Squid
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Squid, I like your re-buttle. Very practical. Very unbaised. But it seems like we would be adapting to the game, and not the opponents. Its the ridiculous draw heavy boards that we are constantly playing against that seems un natural. I can deal with bad players all day, but the un realistic way the cards fall is what kills me. When there is a draw on the board, i can guess what the next card is going to be.

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2 minutes ago, RllDDllCK said:

So the modding community opened this game up. To look at the PRG. he game gives a higher probability for wins the higher your winning streak is. I new this game was rigged. Plus the first set pick to set up the PRG was far from unbiased. Which is why you see so many straight, 3 of a kind and flushes all in the same hand. As well as back to back all day line. It was set up for bidding wars. I knew this game was rigged. Cannot wait till Sony shuts down this game.

I'm not sure what you're referencing, but the game isn't rigged. Hasn't ever been and never will be.

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1 hour ago, Airborn Aqarium said:

Squid, I like your re-buttle. Very practical. Very unbaised. But it seems like we would be adapting to the game, and not the opponents. Its the ridiculous draw heavy boards that we are constantly playing against that seems un natural. I can deal with bad players all day, but the un realistic way the cards fall is what kills me. When there is a draw on the board, i can guess what the next card is going to be.

 

Thanks,

I think one also has to consider that the game is 6 handed.  In 9 handed tables there are 18 cards dealt, then a card is burned and the flop. So 22 cards are already in play or in the muck when the flop hits. That's almost  half the deck.  In contrast a 6 player game has 6 more cards that are still in play.

These extra cards can add a lot more draws or aid in a draw being completed.  I prefer 6 handed games because you can leverage the draws as semi-bluff opportunities.  People don't play their draws aggressively enough, prefering to check/call, which is fine at times. 

In 9 handed play those 6 cards extra cards in play (3 extra players) can all be suits, this can help the boards be more dry and help in draws not hitting as often.

So one has to consider all the details in why a game is the way it is.  I think once one plays enough they will see all kinds of boards, draw heavy boards, paired boards, very dry boards with one high card ect.  The various turns on each board will either help someones hand or reduce its value.  One just has to take it all into consideration.

Anyhow  I enjoy the game, and I've always liked 6 handed anyways.  The hands go faster and there tends to be more action.

Edited by Squid
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